This research brief describes a model that correctly predicts reading performance (basic vs. proficient or above) on the Maryland School Assessment (MSA) for approximately 93% of Grade 5 students. This brief can be used to help staff better understand the student reports shown on Data Warehouse for prediction models.
The predicted scores should be used as one of the tools to gauge students' instructional needs because predictions provide a best estimate of student's performance score rather than the student's predetermined score. Predictions should be used in combination with other student information to inform decisions about instruction, intervention, and acceleration. The Office of Shared Accountability (OSA) should continue to monitor model performance and update the model as needed because the changes in student cohorts, assessments, and instructional practices could affect the accuracy of the prediction.
Predicting Grade 5 Performance on the MSA Reading.pdf (60KB PDF)