This research brief examines factors that predict the number of core credits that Grade 8 students are likely to earn by end of Grade 9. The Grade 9 course completion model correctly predicts attainment of at least four core course credits for 90% of all students. The results will help schools identify students in Grade 8 who might be at risk of course failure in Grade 9 and provide the necessary academic intervention prior to these students entering Grade 9.
Schools should use the prediction model to identify students in Grade 8 or incoming Grade 9 students at risk of course failure and select students who can benefit from academic interventions.Schools should use the predictions in conjunction with other information to inform decisions about how best to support academic attainment of individual students.The Office of Shared Accountability (OSA) should communicate to school staff on deployment of the model and provide training on its use.OSA should conduct periodic cross-validation studies and update the model as needed to ensure that changes in student cohorts, course offerings, instructional practices, and assessments do not reduce the prediction accuracy of the model.
Grade 8 Prediction Model Prin Memo 3-2.pdf (330KB PDF)